ABSTRACT
Introduction: the value of oxygen as a prognostic maker of mortality due to COVID-19 pneumonia has not been evaluated at the Hospital General Docente "Dr. Agostinho Neto". Background: to identify the values of oxygenation markers for prognosing mortality caused by COVID-19 pneumonia at the Hospital General Docente "Dr. Agostinho Neto" de Guantanamo, Cuba, throughout period 2020-2021. Method: a cohort of 276 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was studied. Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2), the difference between the oxygen concentration in the alveoli and arterial system (DA-aO2), arterial oxygen pressure ratio (PaO2) and inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2) [PaO2/FiO2] were studied. The association between variables and deceased discharge was determined using the Chi-square technique and the Odds Ratio (OR) calculation. Results: the variable with the highest positive predictive value was SpO2 (87.3%) with a value lower than 90 mmHg at admission. The highest negative predictive value was recorded for the DA-aO2 variable (95.6%), less than 20 mmHg at 48 hours after admission. Attributable risk was higher for PaO2/FiO2 ratio, less than 300 mmHg (0.59), at admission (0.52). Attributable risk percent was higher for the variable DA-aO2 20 mmHg at admission (95.8%) and at 48 hours after admission (95.3%). Conclusions: abnormal DA-aO2, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, SaO2 and SpO2, at admission and 48 hours after admission, are predictive markers of mortality in patients with COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
In this work, we present a model that uses the fractional order Caputo derivative for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with different hospitalization strategies for severe and mild cases and incorporate an awareness program. We generalize the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 with a private focus on the transmissibility of people who are aware of the disease and follow preventative health measures and people who are ignorant of the disease and do not follow preventive health measures. Moreover, individuals with severe, mild symptoms and asymptomatically infected are also considered. The basic reproduction number (R0) and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) in terms of R0 are investigated. Also, the uniqueness and existence of the solution are studied. Numerical simulations are performed by using some real values of parameters. Furthermore, the immunization of a sample of aware susceptible individuals in the proposed model to forecast the effect of the vaccination is also considered. Also, an investigation of the effect of public awareness on transmission dynamics is one of our aim in this work. Finally, a prediction about the evolution of COVID-19 in 1000 days is given. For the qualitative theory of the existence of a solution, we use some tools of nonlinear analysis, including Lipschitz criteria. Also, for the numerical interpretation, we use the Adams-Moulton-Bashforth procedure. All the numerical results are presented graphically. © 2023 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.